A northbound bulk carrier got swarmed by multiple small craft 11 nautical miles west of Sirik, Iran, yesterday afternoon. Crew is safe and there was no environmental spill, according to UKMTO. About eight hours later an oil tanker took unknown projectiles roughly 78 nautical miles north of Fujairah in the UAE. The ship stayed intact enough to keep sailing, but the message from Tehran landed loud and clear. This fits the pattern of more than two dozen similar incidents since the conflict kicked off.
The Strait of Hormuz is no ordinary shipping lane. It moves roughly one fifth of global oil supply. After the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran back on February 28, Tehran turned the waterway into its favorite pressure point. IRGC small boats, projectiles, and so-called document checks have forced tankers to reverse course, sent insurance premiums soaring, and left hundreds of vessels anchored or rerouted. Washington answered with its own naval blockade on Iranian ports to starve them of revenue. Ceasefire talks have started and stopped repeatedly. Trump recently floated Project Freedom to escort ships through the strait. Yet the attacks keep coming, even as Iran tables a fresh 30-day peace proposal.
Tehran is demonstrating asymmetric leverage. These are not random hits. They are deliberate reminders that Iran can throttle oil flows quickly and on the cheap while it demands the U.S. lift the blockade and ease sanctions. Small-craft swarms and projectiles give just enough deniability to avoid a full naval clash, at least for now. That is more than enough to drive prices higher. Markets see the risk clearly: any real closure or convoy fights would tighten physical supply fast.
Bottom line, this is not de-escalation theater. Iran is reminding everyone it still holds the Hormuz card while talks drag on. Oil traders are right to lean into the volatility. Geopolitical risk just got priced higher, and the next move from either side could send it further. Watch the escorts and the IRGC response closely.
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