Situational Awareness LP launched in late 2024 with $225 million and a single conviction: that the physical infrastructure of artificial general intelligence would be the defining capital allocation of the decade. By May 2026, the fund had crossed $20 billion in assets under management, up 270% after fees. By July 30, every public equity position was gone.
The forced unwind, confirmed by CNBC and Bloomberg, came after 4x leverage turned a July AI stock drawdown into a margin call that erased a 1,000%-plus return streak. Citadel acquired the portfolio. Q1 2026 13F filings show the fund's top five positions were Bloom Energy (23% of the book), SanDisk (19%), CoreWeave (14%), IREN (10%), and Core Scientific (10%).
The Crossfire
Bitcoin mining stocks were not the primary thesis of Situational Awareness LP. They were the infrastructure adjacency: former miners retooling data center capacity for AI workloads. When the AI selloff hit, those positions moved with the sector, not with Bitcoin. Riot Platforms fell 5% on July 27 alone. MARA dropped 3%. CleanSpark lost 4%.
Bitcoin itself held firm. Hash rate is at or near all-time highs, confirming sustained miner commitment to chain security. The network fundamentals did not blink during the equity dislocation.
Hash price tells a harder story. At approximately $30.60 per PH/s/day, miner revenue is near a multi-year low. Lower-efficiency rigs are at or below breakeven. That compression was present before the Aschenbrenner unwind and will remain afterward. Mining stocks were cheap before this week. Now they are cheaper.
Patient Capital
Forced liquidation at $20 billion scale creates dislocations that rarely reflect underlying asset quality. Positions are sold not because the thesis breaks but because leverage demands cash. For investors with no margin call to satisfy, the repricing of IREN, Core Scientific, and CleanSpark may represent entries priced at distressed-fund valuations, not distressed fundamentals.
The cautionary case: this is not vindication for miners. The compute demand thesis that Aschenbrenner built his fund around is under genuine pressure. AGI timeline skeptics are louder after this week. If the infrastructure buildout materializes on a 2027-2029 schedule, today's prices may look like a gift. If the timeline slips further, the repricing has room to continue.
The Macro Backdrop
The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.5% to 3.75% on July 29 in a 9-3 split vote, with three members pushing for a hike. Q2 2026 GDP printed at 1.5% annualized, down from 2.1% in Q1. A decelerating economy with a divided Fed is the macro backdrop for everything playing out this week. Policy paralysis has historically been a tailwind for hard assets. Bitcoin is one of them.
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